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da jogodeouro： Tottenham Hotspur face a major uphill battle to qualify for the Champions League final after their 1-0 defeat to Ajax in the first leg of their semi-final.
Per the Daily Telegraph, there have been 139 occasions when a team has lost a Champions League first leg 1-0. Of those, only 10 have gone on to win the tie – which equates to a win-rate of 7.2%
The three most recent examples came in 2016-17, when Borussia Dortmund came from 1-0 down against Benfica to win the second leg 4-0 and qualify for the quarter-finals, 2014-15, when Atletico Madrid and Bayer Leverkusen drew 1-1 on aggregate and the Spanish side progressed on penalties, and 2012-13, when Malaga beat Porto 2-1 on aggregate.
Spurs, then, face something of a mammoth task to reach the final in Madrid, given that they simply must win in Amsterdam.
But there are ways that it can be done…
How Tottenham can defy the odds
Start Sissoko – The France international changed the game in the first leg against Ajax. A fitness doubt beforehand, he was only introduced because of Jan Vertonghen’s nasty-looking head injury. His pace on the transition and his ability to win the ball back will be key in the Netherlands, as Spurs look to shut down the significant threats posed by first leg goalscorer Donny van de Beek and Frenkie De Jong.
Play Son up front – Son Heung-Min is Spurs’ best attacker without Harry Kane by a significant distance and he was sorely missed in the first leg due to his suspension. This time around, he will almost certainly play and he should replace striker Fernando Llorente. His pace and finishing ability make him a serious threat on the counter and, if he is paired with Lucas Moura, Spurs will have a couple of potent attacking weapons.
Ditch three-at-the-back – It simply didn’t work in the first leg. Ajax were able to dictate the play throughout the opening 30 minutes and could have put the tie to bed. Ditching the formation and switching to four-at-the-back makes all the sense in the world and should restrict the space within which Ajax will want to operate.
Come sprinting out of the blocks – Spurs started too slowly in London. They were not able to gain a foothold until Sissoko’s introduction and were like lambs to the slaughter. This time around, they have to try to get on the front foot from the first whistle. An early goal would completely alter the complexion of the tie and set the cat amongst Ajax’s pigeons.
Pray Kane is fit – This one is a long shot but one has to feel that the semi-final has come at the worst possible time for Spurs. Harry Kane’s injury continues to concern fans and, though Jesus Perez told Pochettino at his press conference last week that Kane will not be fit, fans continue to hold out hope of him being involved in some form or another. Even if he is on the bench, it would send a major psychological message from Spurs and not only boost their players but also terrify Ajax’s. A clash between Kane and Matthijs De Ligt, Ajax’s brilliant young captain, would be something to see.